Professor Clinton Fernandes is part of University of NSW’s Future Operations Research Group which analyses the threats, risks and opportunities that military forces will face in the future. He is a former intelligence officer in the Australian Army.
The US president has the power to unilaterally launch nuclear strikes. He is briefed by the military before taking office – and his advisers have no power to stop him.
The US president and his associates have significant financial investments in pro-US Gulf states, and these may be ruined in an Iranian retaliatory campaign.
Trump didn’t follow through on his threatened attacks. The response by the Iranians shows they understand the constraints on the US president.
For the ordinary Trump-voting American, the Middle East conflict is a long way away. But what Americans will have noticed is that petrol prices have soared more than US80¢ a gallon.
Iran new leaders may be willing to subordinate their foreign and defence policies to US objectives to retain control of their network of lucrative business enterprises.
Behind the turbulence that characterises US President Donald Trump’s actions in Iran lies a shrewd geopolitical strategy.
The US president’s shifting of the geopolitical tectonic plates may seem chaotic, but it’s not. He is a staunch sovereigntist and a shrewd geopolitical calculus is at work.
Australia has placed a very big bet on two unknowns: that the US’s internal political stability and the US-led global order will endure into the 2070s.
Some submarines will eventually be located here, with Australian flags and personnel, but they’re essentially US boats operated in the great power’s interests.