US-Iran war as it happened: Trump says Iran talks could resume, lashes out at Meloni over Pope; War could trigger global recession, says IMF

The International Monetary Fund has produced some scenarios for what might happen when the war on Iran, and its impact on global energy supplies and prices, ends.

What it doesn’t do is sketch out the long-term consequences of one of the biggest disruptions to energy markets in history.

The IMF’s “reference” forecast, which assumes the war will end soon, and its impact will fade by mid-year, is that global growth will slow from its previous, pre-war, forecast of 3.3 per cent (which it planned to upgrade to 3.4 per cent) to 3.1 per cent. Global inflation is expected to rise from the 3.8 per cent the IMF forecast in January to 4.4 per cent.

Its “adverse” scenario, which envisages large and more prolonged increases in oil and gas prices, sees global growth slowing to 2.5 per cent and inflation reaching 5.4 per cent.

Under its “severe” scenario, which includes more damage to regional energy infrastructure, global growth would fall to only 2 per cent this year and inflation would be above 6 per cent by 2027.

Keep reading the full opinion piece here.

Chinese President Xi Jinping touted the stability of ties with Moscow and pledged deeper bilateral co-ordination as the conflict in the Middle East extends into its seventh week.

Xi met with visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today.

“In the face of turbulence in the international situation, the stability and certainty of China-Russia relations are particularly valuable,” Xi told Lavrov during a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

The two nations should “pursue closer strategic co-ordination, firmly safeguard the legitimate interests of both countries, and uphold unity among Global South countries,” Xi said.

Russian news agency Interfax said after the talks Lavrov said the two countries would continue to support efforts to negotiate a settlement to the war in Iran.

China and Russia, two of Tehran’s most important backers, are offering a public display of unity, as the US and Iran look to arrange a second round of peace talks in coming days.

Bloomberg

Washington: The United States is pursuing a “Trumpian grand bargain” with Iran that would begin to normalise relations and let the rogue state reintegrate with the global economy, US Vice President JD Vance says, striking a highly optimistic tone about the possibility of a deal to end the war.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said in a television interview on Tuesday (US time) that while he believed the Iranians wanted to make a deal, he would be comfortable walking away because so much of the country’s military had been destroyed.

“I view it [the war] as very close to over,” he told Fox News Business.

“If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild their country. And we’re not finished. We’ll see what happens.”

Read the full piece from our US correspondent here.

Speaking alongside Albanese in Brunei is Foreign Minister Penny Wong, who said the government’s mission to South-East Asia was vital in the current economic uncertainty caused by the war in the Middle East.

“What this visit is about is recognising the challenges that the world faces and the region faces as a consequence of the conflict in the Middle East and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” Wong said.

“Even if the ceasefire does return, and we do wish, we do call for that, the global supply pressures will continue for some time.

“The prime minister’s engagement here in Brunei and in Singapore and in Malaysia is about making sure we have strong, reliable and trusted partnerships for us to navigate what may be a longer economic tail of this conflict.”

Before Wong spoke, Albanese assured that there were “literally ship-loads of additional fuel” on their way to Australia, and that cargo on those ships would be “targeted to regional communities where it is most needed”.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called for a resumption of “normal economic activity” in the Strait of Hormuz and called for de-escalation in the Middle East war, as he spoke at a press conference in Brunei.

“Australia wants to see a de-escalation. We want to see talks between the United States and Iran resume, and we want to see a resumption of normal economic activity that is so important for the global economy,” Albanese said.

“We are both feeling, of course, the consequences, as are countries right around the world, about changes to supply and Australia has a lot to benefit from engaging with our neighbours in this region,” Albanese said.

He said Brunei supplied 9 per cent of Australia’s diesel imports, and more than 11 per cent of fertiliser grade urea imports.

“We had the opportunity to talk first hand about the potential that’s there as well for an increase in Australia receiving fertiliser in particular from Brunei,” the prime minister said.

The prime minister will travel to Malaysia next.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has released a joint statement on energy and food security with the Sultan of Brunei, which says the nations will “avoid unjustified import and export restrictions” and consult each other on trade.

“Our close relationship is grounded in strategic trust, open markets, and rules-based trade, which underpin the prosperity and security of our peoples and region. We reaffirm these shared principles, which are essential at this time,” the statement read.

Here’s what else was in the statement:

We are committed to working together to strengthen energy supply chain resilience, including by deepening regional cooperation, accelerating alternative energy resources including renewable energy, and maintaining open trade flows.

We also underscore the importance of food security through stable and efficient supply chains to promote economic growth and stability in our region. Acknowledging our complementary efforts in the agriculture and agri-food sector, we are committed to maintaining open, secure and resilient supply chains to ensure long-term food production.

In this context, we reaffirm our commitment to strengthen energy and food security, to support the flow of essential goods between our two countries, including petroleum oils, such as diesel and crude oil, as well as agriculture and agri-food essentials and key agricultural inputs such as urea, to avoid unjustified import and export restrictions and to notify and consult each other on any disruptions with ramifications on the trade of energy and food related supplies.”

Albanese is currently in Brunei and will visit Malaysia as he continues a diplomatic mission to secure supplies amid ongoing shocks to global trade triggered by the war in the Middle East.